California lost more residents to domestic migration last year than the entire population of a mid-sized American city – and it still wasn’t the only state shrinking. Five states lost population outright between July 2024 and July 2025, while more than 20 recorded negative domestic migration. The reasons vary by state, but a pattern runs through most of them: the math of living there no longer works for the people who actually live there.
U.S. population growth hit just 0.5% between July 2024 and July 2025, the nation’s slowest pace since the early period of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2021. The main force behind that slowdown isn’t people leaving in larger numbers – it’s that the international migration tide, which had been masking domestic flight from high-cost states, has dramatically receded. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, net international migration dropped from 2.7 million to 1.3 million in the period from July 2024 through June 2025, a decline of 53.8%. For states that had been relying on foreign arrivals to offset the locals packing their bags, that buffer is gone.
The Northeast felt the effects most acutely, especially in Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Jersey, and New York, which had ranked among the top states for immigration gains in recent years. The region also has some of the nation’s oldest populations and lowest birth rates, leaving states with little natural population growth to offset migration shifts. Meanwhile, 20 states and the District of Columbia recorded negative domestic migration in 2025 – meaning more residents moved out than moved in from other parts of the country. Below are 15 of those states, ranked by the scale and persistence of their population pressures.
1. California
California had the largest domestic migration loss of any state in 2025, at negative 229,077 residents. That’s not a one-bad-year anomaly. According to the U-Haul Growth Index, which analyzes one-way customer transactions, California ranks last with the greatest out-migration number for the sixth consecutive year.
In 2025, California experienced domestic outmigration as it had the year before, losing nearly 230,000 residents to other states. This time, however, net international migration declined so much – by over 200,000 – that it could no longer offset those domestic losses, and despite positive natural change of 109,715, the state still recorded a small overall population loss.
California carries the highest top marginal state income tax rate in the nation at 13.3%, with capital gains also taxed as ordinary income at that same top rate of 13.30%. Housing costs compound the burden: the statewide median price for an existing single-family home reached $838,850 in January 2025 and $884,350 by March 2025, according to the California Association of Realtors. The income that leaves along with residents is substantial: IRS data shows California saw an $11.9 billion loss in net income from 2022 to 2023 – the most of any state. Where are people going? Primarily to Texas, Arizona, Nevada, and Idaho – all states with no or low income tax and significantly cheaper housing.
2. New York
New York followed California in 2025 with a domestic migration loss of 137,586 residents. The state’s population barely grew at all – New York recorded the nation’s slowest population growth rate among states that were technically still growing, at just 0.01%.
Over the last decade, New York lost $111 billion in net adjusted gross income to interstate migration, while Florida gained $196 billion and Texas gained $54 billion, according to the National Taxpayers Union Foundation. That figure illustrates how migration isn’t just a headcount problem – it’s a tax-base erosion that compounds year after year. New York was among the states with the largest declines in international migration in 2025, which compounded its already significant domestic outflow.
New York City has been the primary driver of the exodus, with high housing costs, elevated taxes, and quality-of-life concerns pushing residents toward Florida, North Carolina, and New Jersey. Projections from the University of Virginia’s Weldon Cooper Center suggest that by 2050, as many as 24 states could be losing population – up from the five that did so in 2025 – and New York is among the most likely to remain on that list.
3. Illinois
Illinois lost 40,017 residents to domestic outmigration in 2025, a figure beaten only by California and New York among all 50 states. The state has been hemorrhaging residents for well over a decade, with the trend predating the pandemic by years.
In states like West Virginia and Illinois, populations have declined for most of the last ten years. Between 2010 and 2020, Illinois saw sustained negative domestic migration, a pattern that has shown little sign of reversal. The property tax burden is a particular pain point: Illinois has the highest statewide effective property tax rate in the nation at 1.92%, which reflects the share of a typical home’s value that homeowners pay in property taxes each year.
Illinois recorded among the nation’s slowest population growth rates in 2025, at just 0.13%, held up primarily by international migration that partially offsets the domestic outflow. Remove that buffer – as the current immigration slowdown suggests may happen – and Illinois faces a steeper decline than its headline numbers currently show.
4. New Jersey
New Jersey recorded large domestic migration losses in 2025, a continuation of a pattern that has stretched across multiple census cycles. Hawaii, New York, Connecticut, and New Jersey are among the ten states with the highest cost of living in the country, and that cost premium shows up directly in the migration data.
Homeowners in New Jersey pay the highest property taxes of any state in the country, with a median property tax bill nearly triple the national median. The effective property tax rate in New Jersey is 1.89%, a figure that routinely drives residents – particularly retirees on fixed incomes – across state lines into Pennsylvania, Florida, and Delaware. The state has ranked among the top states for immigration gains in recent years, meaning those international arrivals have been doing significant work to prop up its headcount against the domestic outflow. With that cushion now shrinking, net population pressure is intensifying.
5. Massachusetts
Massachusetts ranked fifth nationally for out-migration in 2025, cementing a trend that had been building for several years. An estimated 33,340 people left the state for other parts of the country over the most recent census year.
Massachusetts, like its Northeast neighbors, had relied heavily on international migration to counterbalance domestic outmigration. The region has some of the nation’s oldest populations and lowest birth rates, leaving states with very little natural growth as a backstop. Boston’s housing market, which has seen median prices in many neighborhoods rival those of Manhattan, drives much of the outflow – with residents relocating to New Hampshire, Maine, and Florida where the dollar stretches further. The Northeast as a whole continued to have the nation’s highest median rate of domestic out-migration in 2025.
6. Hawaii
Hawaii was pulled down mainly by domestic outmigration and lost population outright in 2025, one of only five states to do so. Hawaii experienced a population decline of 0.14%, the steepest percentage drop among all states that saw total population loss.
The island state’s cost-of-living pressures are structural and unlikely to ease. Nearly everything is imported, from food to construction materials, which makes everyday expenses substantially higher than on the mainland. Hawaii ranks among the ten states with the highest cost of living in the country, and unlike high-cost mainland states, there’s no cheap neighboring state to move to without crossing an ocean. Many departing residents are heading to the Pacific Northwest, Texas, and Nevada, trading paradise prices for financial breathing room.
7. West Virginia
West Virginia’s story differs from most states on this list. West Virginia lost population due to negative natural change – more deaths than births – that wasn’t offset enough by domestic migration gains or international arrivals. People are leaving and those who remain are aging, a dual pressure that few policy interventions have managed to reverse.
Between 2010 and 2020, West Virginia’s population fell by about 59,000 people, roughly 3.2%. The state had 19,000 more deaths than births and 27,000 more people leaving than arriving. The economic core of the state – coal and related industries – has contracted over decades, and replacement industries haven’t arrived at sufficient scale. Over the 15-year period from 2010 to 2025, West Virginia recorded the slowest compound annual growth rate of any state at negative 0.32% per year.
8. Vermont
Vermont’s population decline stems from natural decrease, where deaths exceeded births, combined with insufficient migration gains to compensate. Vermont recorded its slowest annual population change since 2000, at negative 0.29%, making it the worst performer on a percentage basis among all states in the most recent census year.
The state’s demographics skew old. Younger residents have been departing for larger job markets for years, leaving an older population base where natural decrease becomes mathematically inevitable. Housing costs in resort communities like Burlington and Stowe have climbed substantially, squeezing out the younger workers who might otherwise replenish the tax base. Ironically, Vermont ranks well in quality-of-life metrics – but quality of life doesn’t pay the mortgage in one of New England’s pricier small states.
9. New Mexico
New Mexico’s population dropped by just over 1,000 residents in the most recent census year, placing it among the five states that lost population outright. The decline is small in absolute terms but meaningful for a state with a relatively modest overall population.
Like Vermont, New Mexico’s decline is driven partly by natural decrease, where deaths outnumber births. Economic stagnation in rural counties, limited job growth in non-energy sectors, and persistent poverty rates have made the state a net exporter of working-age residents for years. Albuquerque, the state’s largest city, has struggled with elevated crime rates that surveys repeatedly identify as a secondary migration driver, with residents citing safety concerns alongside economic ones when explaining their decisions to leave.
10. Louisiana
Louisiana recorded one of the nation’s slowest population growth rates in 2025, at just 0.07%, barely above zero. Climate risk has become an increasingly explicit factor in migration decisions here, with residents in coastal and low-lying parishes citing flood insurance costs, repeated hurricane damage, and the long-term threat of land subsidence alongside economic and crime-related concerns. A 2025 Atlas Van Lines study of its shipments found that Louisiana ranked as the country’s most outbound state, with departures far outpacing arrivals. The combination of thin job growth, high insurance premiums, and climate vulnerability makes for a departure profile that’s difficult to reverse.
11. Connecticut
Connecticut was among the states with the largest declines in international migration in 2025, removing the buffer that had been holding its population relatively stable despite persistent domestic outmigration. Connecticut sits in a Northeast region that continued to carry the nation’s highest median rate of domestic out-migration in 2025.
The state’s tax burden is significant. Connecticut’s property tax rate sits above 2.11%, the fourth highest in the country, and the state also imposes taxes on retirement income – a combination that makes it particularly unattractive for older residents managing fixed budgets. Residents departing Connecticut most commonly relocate to Florida and North Carolina, often explicitly citing lower property taxes as the primary financial driver.
12. Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania was among the 17 states that recorded negative natural change in 2025 – meaning more residents died than were born, placing additional demographic strain on a state already dealing with uneven domestic migration patterns. Pennsylvania grew by just 0.10% in 2025, one of the slowest rates in the country.
Pennsylvania’s migration story is geographically split. The Philadelphia suburbs and Pittsburgh metro areas continue to attract domestic in-migrants, while rural and post-industrial communities across the state’s interior – many tied to steel, coal, and manufacturing economies that have not recovered – continue to lose residents year after year. The state’s aggregate population barely grows because the gains in its metros are offset by sustained rural shrinkage.
13. Michigan
Michigan’s domestic migration trajectory has improved markedly from its pandemic lows, but the state is still working off decades of demographic damage. Michigan recorded net domestic migration of positive 1,796 in 2025, compared to a loss of 28,290 in 2021 – a genuine turnaround, though still fragile.
Michigan was among the 17 states recording negative natural change in 2025, however, meaning births still trail deaths – a legacy of population aging in former manufacturing centers like Detroit and Flint. Population growth in Michigan came in at just 0.17% in 2025, near the bottom of all 50 states. The state’s recovery is real but fragile, dependent on whether the auto industry’s electric vehicle transition generates enough employment to sustain genuine demographic momentum.
14. Alaska
Alaska recorded a population growth rate of just 0.10% in 2025, among the slowest in the country. The state has dealt with persistent outmigration for years, driven primarily by a limited job market, extreme isolation, and a cost of living that is among the highest in the country despite the absence of a state income tax.
The economics of daily life in Alaska are punishing for families. Groceries, healthcare, and utilities all carry significant premiums compared to the continental United States, and the job market outside of oil, gas, fishing, and government sectors is thin. Younger residents with college degrees tend to leave for West Coast cities, leaving an increasingly older and less economically mobile population base behind.
15. Oregon
Oregon was among the 17 states recording negative natural change in 2025, a sign that the state’s aging population is beginning to weigh on its demographic math. Oregon had long attracted domestic in-migrants from California, but that trend has cooled as Oregon’s own urban housing costs – particularly in Portland – have risen sharply.
Portland’s struggles with homelessness, crime, and urban blight have been widely covered and explicitly cited in business relocation decisions over the past several years. The city has lost corporate headquarters and retail anchors, a pattern that tends to precede broader population decline. Oregon’s domestic migration balance has shifted from reliably positive to increasingly marginal, and with natural decrease now factoring into the equation, the margin for error is narrowing.
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The Bottom Line
Affordability is the most consistent thread connecting these states with population decline. Property tax rates, income tax rates, and median home prices are the three numbers that most directly predict which direction a moving truck is heading. States sitting near the top of all three categories – California, New York, New Jersey, Illinois – are also the states posting the largest and most sustained domestic outflow. That’s not a coincidence.
The Midwest was the only region where all states gained population from July 2024 to July 2025, and its population grew solidly in 2025 after experiencing a decline in 2021. That reversal reflects the affordability-driven interest in states like Ohio, Indiana, and Michigan, where home prices and tax burdens are a fraction of what residents would pay in the Northeast or California. If you live in one of the states on this list and are watching property values stagnate while local services get squeezed, the cause is almost certainly the same dynamic: a shrinking tax base chasing a rising cost of government. The practical question isn’t whether these states are losing people – the data is clear that they are – it’s whether the policy levers that drive those departures will shift before the next census makes the damage permanent.
Disclaimer: This information is not intended to be a substitute for professional financial advice, investment advice, tax advice, or legal advice, and is provided for informational purposes only. Always seek the guidance of a qualified financial advisor, accountant, or other licensed professional regarding your personal financial situation or investment decisions. Do not make financial, investment, or tax decisions based solely on information presented here. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and all investments carry risk, including the potential loss of principal.
AI Disclaimer: This article was created with the assistance of AI tools and reviewed by a human editor.
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