Jade Small

Jade Small

November 22, 2024

Russia’s Historic Use of ICBMs in Ukraine: What It Means for the Conflict and the World

In a shocking escalation of the ongoing war in Ukraine, Russia has reportedly launched intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) at Ukrainian territory for the first time. This unprecedented move signals a dangerous shift in the nature of the conflict, raising global concerns about the potential for wider escalation and the evolving role of Russia’s nuclear-capable missile systems in its military strategy.

The First ICBM Strike

According to Al Jazeera, on November 21, 2024, Ukrainian authorities confirmed that Russia had used ICBMs against Ukrainian targets in the city of Dnipro. The Ukrainian military’s Strategic Communications Department (StratCom) accused Moscow of deploying the high-tech, long-range missiles in a direct assault on Ukrainian cities, marking the first time such weapons have been used in the war. The missile strikes are seen as a significant step up from the usual barrages of shorter-range missile attacks, which have been a hallmark of the conflict since Russia’s invasion began in February 2022.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy condemned the missile strikes, which reportedly targeted civilian infrastructure, calling the attacks a “a sever escalation” according to the Guardian. Kyiv’s officials described the ICBM strike as an escalation that could have grave consequences for the war’s future trajectory and regional stability.

The ICBM Weapon: “Oreshnik”

Russian officials have not yet publicly acknowledged the use of ICBMs in Ukraine, but experts believe they are referring to a new missile system developed by Russia’s military—the “Oreshnik.” This missile is a long-range intercontinental weapon capable of delivering nuclear payloads, a stark reminder of Russia’s nuclear capabilities. According to reports from military analysts and government sources, the ICBMS, like Oreshnik, can reach targets over 5,000 kilometers away, allowing Russia to strike virtually any point on Earth, including within NATO member states, should the need arise.

The Oreshnik is part of Russia’s broader modernization program for its nuclear deterrent forces. The missile’s advanced guidance systems and stealth capabilities make it harder to intercept, and it is speculated that it could carry both conventional and nuclear warheads. While Russia has previously tested and showcased the Oreshnik, this appears to be its first operational use in combat, underscoring the potential for further escalation in the conflict.

Implications of the Strike

The use of ICBMs in the Ukraine conflict marks a dramatic shift in Russian tactics. Before this, Russia had refrained from deploying its most advanced nuclear-capable weapons, opting instead for shorter-range ballistic and cruise missile strikes. This strategic threshold—wherein Moscow now uses ICBMs against Ukraine—raises fears of a further intensification of the war, including the possibility of tactical nuclear strikes. With the world already on edge due to the ongoing conflict, this escalation could prompt NATO and other international powers to reconsider their involvement in the war.

One of the most immediate consequences of this move is the potential to provoke further international condemnation and even military responses. While NATO has not yet publicly commented on Russia’s use of ICBMs, the alliance has consistently provided Ukraine with advanced weaponry and intelligence throughout the conflict. Some analysts speculate that this new development could lead to a recalibration of Western aid, with the U.S. and its allies potentially increasing military support to Ukraine, including advanced air defense systems capable of countering ICBM threats.

At the same time, the use of ICBMs may signal a shift in Russia’s military goals. By deploying such powerful and destructive weapons, Russia could be seeking to intimidate Ukraine into negotiating a ceasefire or peace deal on Moscow’s terms, hoping that the sheer scale of the missile attacks will break Ukrainian morale.

A Dangerous Precedent

The deployment of ICBMs in Ukraine also raises the specter of further nuclear escalation. While Russia has maintained a policy of “nuclear deterrence,” the war in Ukraine has brought the possibility of tactical nuclear weapons being used into closer view. If Russia continues to use its most potent weapons, it could embolden other nuclear powers to reconsider their strategic posture in global conflicts.

The Oreshnik missile, with its capacity to launch both nuclear and conventional payloads, could represent a new era in military technology where nations with advanced missile capabilities feel empowered to use them in high-stakes geopolitical conflicts. This precedent would undoubtedly alter the calculus of nuclear deterrence, increasing the risks of miscalculation or even direct confrontation between nuclear-armed states.

Russia’s use of ICBMs in Ukraine represents a critical juncture in the ongoing war. It shifts the conflict into new, more dangerous territory, potentially laying the groundwork for broader regional instability. The world now faces a sobering reminder of the destructive power of modern nuclear weapons and the thin line between conventional warfare and full-scale nuclear escalation. How the international community responds to this new phase of the war will determine whether it remains contained or spirals into a global crisis. The use of the Oreshnik missile, a symbol of Russia’s evolving military strategy, could have far-reaching consequences for international security and the future of nuclear deterrence.

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