A Bigger Check, But Does It Actually Help?
Here’s where the math gets complicated. A higher COLA sounds like good news. And in raw dollar terms, it is. But for many retirees, a bigger adjustment doesn’t mean a better life. It usually means inflation got worse first.
Because the COLA is tied to inflation, a larger increase typically coincides with rapidly rising living costs. The additional income will likely be consumed by higher expenses rather than improving anyone’s lifestyle.
Shannon Benton, TSCL’s executive director, put it plainly: “Many seniors are telling us the same thing: As inflation picks back up, life still does not feel affordable. The average senior already lives on much less than younger Americans, according to the Census Bureau, and our supporters constantly tell us they feel like they’re falling farther and farther behind.”
There’s also the Medicare factor to consider. Medicare premiums, which are typically deducted directly from Social Security checks, are also projected to rise in 2027. According to the 2025 Medicare Trustees Report, the standard monthly Part B premium is expected to reach $218.60 in 2027, up from $202.90 this year, and the Part B deductible would rise to $305 from $283. When those increases come out of your check before you ever see it, the net gain from a COLA raise shrinks considerably.
The bigger structural problem is that the COLA formula itself may not be capturing what seniors actually spend money on. The Senior Citizens League’s 3.9% forecast mirrors the April CPI-W reading exactly, but that index tracks spending patterns among working-age Americans, not retirees. Advocacy groups have long argued this produces an inaccurate picture of what seniors actually experience as rising costs.
Even with annual cost-of-living adjustments, seniors are falling behind. The Senior Citizens League found that Social Security benefits have lost almost 14% of their value over the last decade, because the inflation index used to set the COLA doesn’t accurately reflect the costs seniors face, particularly higher healthcare expenses.
You can read more about how inflation affects retirement income and what steps you can take to protect your purchasing power as you age.