When Will the Official Number Be Set?
The Social Security Administration is scheduled to announce the 2027 COLA on October 14, 2026, following the release of September’s Consumer Price Index data. The SSA calculates the COLA every year by comparing third-quarter CPI-W data to the third-quarter data of the previous year. The increase from one year to the next, if there is one, determines the adjustment. That means five more months of inflation data will arrive before the official number is locked in.
The CRFB noted that depending on the course of inflation over the next several months, the COLA could range anywhere from 3% to 4.5%. That’s a wide band, and a reminder that the 3.9% figure circulating now is a forecast, not a guarantee.
If oil prices cool or supply chains stabilize, the number could come down. If energy and food prices keep climbing, 4% or higher becomes very plausible.
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