The 2028 presidential race is nearly two and a half years away, and yet the jockeying has already begun in earnest on both sides of the aisle. Town halls in New Hampshire, donor meetings in Manhattan, book tours that barely hide their real ambition. Politicians rarely announce this early, but they don’t wait around either. The moves being made right now, the polling numbers, the prediction market odds, the carefully worded “I haven’t ruled it out” – they all mean something.
What makes 2028 genuinely unusual is the constitutional vacuum at the top. Donald Trump is ineligible for a third term, as the term limits imposed by the Twenty-second Amendment prohibit presidents from being elected more than twice. As a result, it is set to be the first time since 1884 that two consecutive elections lack an incumbent president on the ballot. That opens the door wide. No incumbent advantage. No heir presumptive with a guaranteed lane. Just a sprawling, competitive field on both sides, and a country trying to figure out what comes next.
As of early 2026, no noteworthy formal campaign announcements have been made for the 2028 presidential election, a normal condition at this stage. Most candidates do not announce presidential runs until after the midterm elections, which are scheduled to take place in November 2026. But the pre-positioning is already intense, and the polling data is already telling a story. Here is a full accounting of who is running, who might run, and what voters currently think of all of them.
The Republican Field
JD Vance: The Clear Front-Runner With a Softening Lead
No Republican figure enters the 2028 conversation with more structural advantages than Vice President JD Vance. He occupies the second-highest office in the land, holds the implicit backing of the MAGA movement, and has been quietly making the rounds with major GOP donors. But his polling numbers, while dominant, have shown signs of slippage.
A plurality of Republican presidential primary voters (46%) support Vice President JD Vance in a hypothetical 2028 ballot test, while 12% support Marco Rubio and 9% support Ron DeSantis, according to a 2025 Emerson College poll. No other candidate reached 20 percent.
Yet the trend lines are heading in a less comfortable direction. In a follow-up YouGov survey conducted April 8 to 13, 2026, Vance’s share fell to 36 percent among Republican and Republican-leaning voters, compared to 41 percent in January. While Vance remains the single most popular option, the five-point drop is notable given the relatively short time span and the early stage of the 2028 race.
In Kalshi’s 2028 U.S. presidential election winner market, Vance is currently priced at around a 20 percent chance of winning, placing him narrowly ahead of California Governor Gavin Newsom at 18 percent and Senator Marco Rubio at 15 percent. Vance’s implied probability has fallen sharply over time, peaking at roughly 32.8 percent on October 16, 2025, before slipping to 20 percent in April 2026, a 12.8-point decline mirroring the softer trend seen in polling.
The Yale Youth Poll from Spring 2026 captures his current positioning precisely: Vance leads the Republican field with 43 percent support, while Marco Rubio holds a distant second at 17 percent. Donald Trump Jr. receives 9 percent support and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis receives 6 percent. Compared to the fall 2025 poll, support for Vance dropped by 8 percentage points while support for Rubio increased by 12 percentage points, a signal worth watching.
On electability, Vance still dominates. He is the most popular of these potential candidates among likely Republican primary voters, with 77% holding a favorable opinion of him.
Vance has not formally declared but has acknowledged the possibility. He told Fox News: “I would say that I’ve thought about what that moment might look like after the midterm elections. But whenever I think about that, I try to put it out of my head and remind myself the American people elected me to do a job right now.”
Marco Rubio: The Establishment Alternative
Secretary of State Marco Rubio is the most credible challenger to Vance in national polls. Rubio has publicly stated that if Vance enters the race, he would support him, telling Vanity Fair: “If JD Vance runs for president, he’s going to be our nominee, and I’ll be one of the first people to support him.” That deference, however, reads more as strategic positioning than genuine concession. If Vance stumbles, Rubio’s infrastructure is already in place.
The RealClearPolling national average for the 2028 Republican primary currently shows Vance at 45.5%, with Trump Jr. at 14.8%, Rubio at 14.0%, and DeSantis at 7.5%. While Rubio has ground to make up against Vance on preference, 63% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents said they would consider voting for Vance in the Republican presidential primary, with 42 percent saying the same for Rubio and 35 percent for DeSantis.
Ron DeSantis: A Comeback Story That Hasn’t Found Its Footing Yet
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis entered 2025 as a figure whose national ambitions had been publicly humbled by his 2024 primary exit. His numbers in 2028 polling remain modest. He currently polls at 6 percent among Republicans in the Yale Youth Poll, and the RealClearPolling average places him at 7.5 percent nationally. DeSantis is still included in most major polls and remains on Ballotpedia’s list of discussed Republican candidates, but his path to the nomination requires a significant Vance collapse.
Nikki Haley: Polling Trouble, Not Going Away
Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley remains a recognizable figure in the GOP, but her favorability numbers among Republican primary voters are a liability. Haley is least popular among likely Republican primary voters, with only 25% holding a favorable view of her. In the New Hampshire primary snapshot from the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, she polled at 9 percent among likely Republican primary voters in the state, far behind Vance. Her appeal to moderate Republicans and independents could become an asset in a general election, but it’s a structural weakness in a MAGA-dominated primary.
Donald Trump Jr., Tulsi Gabbard, and the Rest of the GOP Field
Among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, 65% say they would consider voting for Vance in the 2028 Republican presidential primary, followed by Ron DeSantis at 40%, Donald Trump Jr. at 37%, Marco Rubio at 33%, and Ted Cruz at 29%, according to a YouGov survey published by The Economist.
A separate YouGov survey found Trump Jr. drawing 13 percent as the top choice behind Vance among Republicans. Among those who plan to vote in the 2028 Republican presidential primary in New Hampshire, half (51%) say they would vote for Vice President JD Vance, followed by Nikki Haley at 9%, Tulsi Gabbard at 8%, Marco Rubio at 5%, Sarah Huckabee Sanders at 4%, and Rand Paul rounding out the secondary tier.
As of early 2026, other politicians discussed in the media as potential Republican candidates include Katie Britt, Tom Cotton, Ted Cruz, Byron Donalds, Matt Gaetz, Marjorie Taylor Greene, Josh Hawley, Brian Kemp, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Kristi Noem, Rand Paul, Mike Pence, Mike Pompeo, Vivek Ramaswamy, Sarah Huckabee Sanders, and Tim Scott.
One important caveat: D. Stephen Voss, political science professor at the University of Kentucky, told Newsweek that “early in a campaign cycle, the candidates with high name recognition usually lead the polls. Sometimes the lead holds, and sometimes it evaporates,” adding that what matters is whether other candidates have the time and resources to shape their own standing with the public.
The Democratic Field
The Democratic side is even more fluid. With no sitting president or vice president to anchor the party, the 2028 primary is shaping up as one of the most genuinely open contests in recent memory. The field is wide, the polling is scattered, and no candidate has yet broken through with the kind of sustained, dominant numbers that would signal a presumptive nominee.
Kamala Harris: Surging, But Still Facing Headwinds
Former Vice President Kamala Harris is the most recognizable name in the Democratic primary conversation, and she’s no longer being coy about her interest in 2028. She told Al Sharpton “I might. I am thinking about it” when asked whether she planned to run for president in 2028, at the National Action Network’s annual convention, where more than a half-dozen prospective Democratic contenders engaged with Black voters.
Polling reflects her name recognition advantage, and it’s been moving fast. The most recent Harvard/Harris poll showed Harris with support from 50 percent of Democrats in the 2028 primary race, up from 41 percent in March and 39 percent in January and February. Among Black Democratic voters, she received 71 percent support, while drawing 41 percent among white Democrats and 50 percent among Hispanic and Asian Democrats.
An Echelon Insights poll showed Harris with 22 percent, followed by Newsom at 21 percent, Buttigieg at 12 percent, and Ocasio-Cortez at 10 percent, with no other candidates in the double digits. It polled 1,012 likely voters April 17-20 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
The RealClearPolling Democratic primary average puts the national picture in wider context: Harris leads at 28.0%, ahead of Newsom at 18.7%, Buttigieg at 11.0%, Ocasio-Cortez at 7.8%, Shapiro at 6.6%, and Kelly at 5.0%.
Not everyone in the party is enthusiastic. While Harris leads in several polls, some Democratic lawmakers remain noncommittal about supporting her in 2028, with figures such as Sen. Elizabeth Warren and Rep. Troy Carter indicating many prefer to see the full field before making endorsements, and others voicing interest in a competitive primary process. Early polling showing Harris at the top of the field is partly a function of name recognition, not necessarily deep enthusiasm. History also isn’t on her side: Adlai Stevenson was the last Democrat to run for president as the party’s nominee in consecutive elections, losing in both 1952 and 1956 to Dwight D. Eisenhower.
Gavin Newsom: Still Leading the Markets
California Governor Gavin Newsom has spent the past year aggressively building a national profile. He has written a widely discussed book, clashed publicly with Trump, and held steady as a Democratic frontrunner, buoyed by fundraising strength and executive experience. On Polymarket, Newsom currently sits at around 25 percent implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination. In October 2025, in an interview with CBS News Sunday Morning, Newsom stated that after the 2026 midterm elections, he would give “serious thought” to running.
His surge in August 2025 polling was striking. An Emerson College poll at that time showed Newsom leading the Democratic primary at 25 percent, a 13-point increase from June, followed by Pete Buttigieg at 16 percent, Harris at 11 percent, and Shapiro at 5 percent. Since then, Harris has reasserted herself in polling, while Newsom remains the market favorite for the nomination.
Among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, 55% say they’d consider Newsom as a 2028 nominee, and 54% would consider Harris, with Buttigieg at 41%, Tim Walz at 40%, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 38% rounding out the top five, according to a YouGov poll published by The Economist.
For a broader look at how the 2028 race could unfold across both parties, see The Hearty Soul’s earlier analysis on AI election forecasting.
Pete Buttigieg: The Early-State Leader
Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg has quietly emerged as the frontrunner in critical early primary states. It was reported that Buttigieg was leading polls in New Hampshire in October 2025, and a February 2026 University of New Hampshire Granite State Poll again found him leading the prospective Democratic field in the state. When asked directly whether he would run for president in 2028, he replied that it was “a long way from any kind of decision like that.”
In the most recent UNH Survey Center poll, Buttigieg leads early 2028 presidential polling in New Hampshire at 20 percent, ahead of Newsom and Ocasio-Cortez both at 15 percent. His favorability numbers among likely Democratic primary voters are the highest of any candidate surveyed: Buttigieg has an 81 percent favorable rating among likely Democratic primary voters in New Hampshire, with a net favorability of +75.
Buttigieg served as U.S. Secretary of Transportation from 2021 to 2025, and previously served as mayor of South Bend, Indiana, from 2012 to 2020. He was thrust into the national spotlight with his 2020 presidential campaign, where he narrowly won the Iowa caucus and finished a close second in the New Hampshire primary. His continued travel to key states, including visits to Nevada, Georgia, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, is being read by political observers as pre-campaign positioning.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: The Generational Candidate
No Democrat generates a more polarized reaction, or more youth enthusiasm, than New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Axios noted in April 2025 that Ocasio-Cortez had been surging in early polling of potential 2028 presidential candidates. Vanity Fair has reported that she is reluctant to launch a presidential campaign, and some have called for her to primary Chuck Schumer in the 2028 New York Senate elections.
Her generational strength in polling is striking. The Yale Youth Poll showed Ocasio-Cortez with a commanding lead among young Democratic voters. Among registered Democrats ages 18-22, 30 percent would back her; among those ages 23-29, 35 percent would support her; and among 30-to-34-year-old Democratic voters, 29 percent would support her. Her support begins to wane among older Democrats, with middle-aged voters favoring Harris and seniors favoring Newsom.
In the most recent YouGov/Economist poll, Newsom is the person named by the greatest share of Democrats as their ideal 2028 nominee at 23%, followed by 19% for Harris, 8% for Ocasio-Cortez, 6% for Buttigieg, and 5% each for Walz and Sanders.
Josh Shapiro: The Electability Argument
Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro is making a calculated bet: that Democrats will prioritize electability over ideology after their 2024 losses, and that he is the candidate best positioned to deliver the Rust Belt. Shapiro is frequently mentioned among the top potential contenders, with supporters pointing to his success in a swing state critical to Democrats’ path to the White House. He won his 2022 governor’s race by double digits and holds a strong job approval among Pennsylvania voters.
At the National Action Network convention in April 2026, Shapiro leaned into that message: “We have an opportunity to have a real debate in our party about what we stand for, about what our affirmative vision is,” while remaining noncommittal on a 2028 run.
Andy Beshear: The Red-State Democrat
Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear is making an increasingly direct pitch for the Democratic nomination based on an argument few others can make: he has hinted at a possible 2028 run and has argued that his status as a governor who has won three straight statewide elections in a deep-red state makes him the most electable candidate for Democrats. His chairmanship of the Democratic Governors Association is raising his national profile rapidly.
Cory Booker, JB Pritzker, and the Secondary Democratic Tier
New Jersey Senator Cory Booker broke the record for the longest Senate floor speech in April 2025, which raised his profile substantially. During a visit to New Hampshire in November 2025, Booker told Fox News, “Of course I’m thinking about it, I haven’t ruled it out.” Among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, less than one-third said they’d consider each of Elizabeth Warren (29%), Cory Booker (28%), JB Pritzker (24%), Gretchen Whitmer (20%), Mark Kelly (18%), and Amy Klobuchar (18%), according to a YouGov poll for The Economist.
Illinois Governor JB Pritzker has similarly declined to rule out a run. After Trump called for the governor to be jailed last fall, Pritzker made headlines with his response: “Come and get me.” He has emphasized his 2026 reelection fight as his current focus but has not closed any doors. Arizona Senator Mark Kelly, who has served since 2020 and was previously on the shortlist as a 2024 vice presidential candidate, has been noted as a potential 2028 candidate by Axios and Politico.
The broader list of potential Democratic candidates as of early 2026 includes Cory Booker, Pete Buttigieg, Ruben Gallego, Kirsten Gillibrand, Mark Kelly, Ro Khanna, Amy Klobuchar, Chris Murphy, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and Jon Ossoff, among others.
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General Election Matchups: What Head-to-Heads Show
The most closely tracked hypothetical matchup is Vance versus Newsom. Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Democrats at 60.5% to win the open-seat 2028 presidential election, while Vance holds a 39% edge for the Republican nomination as incumbent vice president, amid perceptions of stronger Democratic momentum reflected in 2026 midterm odds. RealClearPolling is already tracking general election head-to-head matchups including Vance vs. Newsom, Vance vs. Harris, Vance vs. Buttigieg, Vance vs. Ocasio-Cortez, Rubio vs. Newsom, and Rubio vs. Harris.
In February 2026, polls suggested that Harris would win the election in a hypothetical rematch with President Donald Trump, though that scenario is constitutionally moot. The more relevant question is how the eventual nominees of both parties stack up against each other, and that calculation won’t be possible until the 2026 midterms clarify the political environment.
What to Watch Between Now and November 2026
The 2028 presidential race is, by every metric, the most wide-open contest America has seen in decades. On the Republican side, Vice President JD Vance enters 2026 as the clear primary front-runner, but his once-dominant numbers are softening. Marco Rubio has surged in the wake of that decline, while DeSantis and Haley remain secondary figures with uphill paths. On the Democratic side, the field is even more unsettled. Kamala Harris leads most national polls, including a striking 50 percent in the most recent Harvard/Harris survey. Gavin Newsom leads on prediction markets. Pete Buttigieg leads in the first primary state. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez leads among voters under 35. Josh Shapiro makes the strongest electability argument.
The 2026 midterms will be the first real stress test, reshaping fundraising, staff infrastructure, and the media narratives around every name on this list. Candidates who perform well in their home states or successfully tie their brand to midterm victories will see their 2028 numbers move. Those who stumble, or simply fail to break through in a crowded news environment, will find the path narrowing fast. Every policy speech, every New Hampshire visit, and every carefully timed interview between now and then is part of the campaign that dare not yet speak its name. Pay attention to who shows up in Iowa in the fall. That’s usually where the real story starts.
AI Disclaimer: This article was created with the assistance of AI tools and reviewed by a human editor.
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