Something unusual is happening in American politics right now. Conversations that once lived only on the fringes of cable news chyrons have moved to the center of congressional hallways, polling booths, and kitchen table debates. The question being asked, openly and with growing urgency, is one the country has grappled with before but never quite resolved: how, exactly, does a sitting president get removed from office, and is the current moment different enough to change the answer?
The topic of the Trump removal process has a way of cycling in and out of public attention, often dismissed as political theater by supporters and framed as a constitutional necessity by critics. But something about 2026 feels different from prior moments. The numbers have shifted. The voices calling for action have grown louder and more politically diverse. And a significant portion of the American public appears to be paying close attention.
For most people, the mechanics of presidential removal are genuinely unfamiliar. There are two distinct constitutional pathways, and they work very differently. Understanding what each one requires and how far out of reach either actually is matters a great deal for anyone trying to make sense of what is happening in Washington right now.
The Two Paths the Constitution Provides
The first pathway is impeachment. During Trump’s first term, the House impeached him twice, and the Senate rejected conviction both times. His second impeachment drew 57 Senate votes, including seven Republicans, but fell short of the two-thirds threshold required for conviction.
The process works in two stages. The House of Representatives, under the Constitution, holds the power to impeach, and a simple majority vote is all that is needed to pass articles of impeachment. But passing articles in the House does not remove a president from office. That requires the Senate. Some Democrats have pushed for impeaching Trump amid the Iran war, but the likelihood of that remains low. Republicans control the House of Representatives, and no sitting Republicans have signaled support for impeachment.
On the Senate side, the bar is steep. The two-thirds threshold, 67 votes, was not reached even when 57 senators voted to convict Trump following January 6. No president has ever been removed from office through the impeachment and conviction process.
The second pathway is the 25th Amendment. Section 4 of the amendment allows the vice president and a majority of the Cabinet to temporarily remove a president who is “unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office.” The section also allows for “such other body as Congress may by law provide” to make that declaration alongside the vice president.
If a president contests such a move, the situation escalates quickly. After 21 days, Congress would have to vote to approve permanent removal, with two-thirds majorities required in both chambers. The amendment has never been used in that way against a sitting president. The practical obstacle is obvious: Republicans control Congress, and the president could simply veto legislation designed to create a commission to assess his fitness.
The Trump Removal Process and What’s Driving It in 2026
So why are these mechanisms being discussed so seriously right now?
During the 2026 Iran war, many Democrats called for Trump’s impeachment, citing his posts on Truth Social in which he threatened that “a whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again” if Iran didn’t meet his deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Rep. Yassamin Ansari, an Iranian American Democrat, was among the first to respond, saying the 25th Amendment “exists for a reason” and that “the fate of U.S. troops, the Iranian people, and the very foundation of our global system are at stake.”
More than 85 House and Senate Democrats called for Trump to be impeached or removed via the 25th Amendment to the Constitution following his threat to destroy Iran’s civilization. House Democrats also unveiled legislation that would create a commission to formally assess whether the 25th Amendment should be invoked. That bill was introduced by House Judiciary Committee Ranking Member Jamie Raskin and would establish a 17-member commission authorized by Section 4 of the 25th Amendment.
Connecticut Democrat John Larson said in a statement: “Donald Trump has blown past every requirement to be removed from office. And it’s getting worse.” He added that Trump’s Iran war “is driving up prices for American families” and that Trump “is becoming more unstable by the day.”
On the formal legislative record, a resolution introduced in the current Congress impeaches Trump on articles including obstruction of justice, violation of due process, usurpation of congressional war powers, abuse of trade powers, and bribery and corruption.
What the Polls Actually Show
Public opinion on removal has reached levels that political analysts are comparing to a specific historical moment. According to a survey of 790 registered voters commissioned by two groups opposing Trump’s Iran war and other policies, 52% back impeachment compared to 40% opposed. The finding includes one in seven Republicans supporting removal proceedings. Free Speech For People, a progressive organization, commissioned Lake Research Partners to conduct the poll, which carries a margin of error of 3.9 percent.
A separate April 2026 survey told a similar story. The Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll surveyed 1,514 U.S. adults online between April 10 and April 14, 2026, with a margin of error of ±2.6 percentage points. That poll found 55% of U.S. adults say the House should vote to impeach Trump, with 37% opposed and 8% unsure. Support for impeaching Trump is only a few percentage points lower than it was for Richard Nixon in 1974, and at the height of Watergate, days before Nixon resigned, Gallup found 58% wanted him removed.
The Strength In Numbers poll is not completely apples to apples with historic comparisons: it asked about the House voting to impeach, a lower bar than the “impeach and remove” language most national pollsters have used historically. Even accounting for that, the April 2026 number sits at or near the high-water mark of modern impeachment polling, and well above the Ukraine and Clinton readings.
The partisan breakdown of impeachment support reveals a clear divide. Among independents, 50% support impeachment and 28% oppose. A fifth of Trump’s own MAGA voters want to see him removed from office.
These impeachment numbers don’t exist in isolation. They track closely with Trump’s broader approval collapse. Trump’s net approval rating sits at -19.1 in the Silver Bulletin average, making him less popular than Joe Biden was at this point in his term. He is also less popular than Trump himself was during his first term. About 48% of Americans strongly disapprove of Trump’s job performance, while just 21.7% strongly approve.
Donald Trump remains deeply unpopular, with less than 40% of Americans approving of how he’s handling his job as president. A May 2026 YouGov/Economist poll found 37% strongly or somewhat approve of Trump’s job handling, while 57% disapprove. Trump’s net approval has been below -20 for four consecutive Economist/YouGov polls, with his three-week average near a record low for his second term.
The most recent YouGov/Economist poll, conducted May 22-26, 2026, showed the situation worsening further. Just 34% of Americans strongly or somewhat approve of Trump’s job handling, with 59% disapproving, for a net job approval of -26. Trump’s net approval of -26 is a record low for either of his terms or Biden’s term.
Why Removal Remains Unlikely Despite the Numbers
Public support for impeachment and the political reality of actually achieving removal are two different things. Rep. Jamie Raskin, a constitutional law professor and ranking member of the House Judiciary Committee, acknowledged “tremendous anxiety in the country” while stressing that Democrats remain in the minority, adding that calling for impeachment “simply denies this political reality.”
Party leaders have shown little appetite for pursuing either route before the midterm elections, fearing a futile fight could drain momentum from a campaign centered on high costs and corruption.
Prediction markets reflect that skepticism. According to Newsweek’s reporting on Kalshi’s prediction markets, Trump has only a 13% chance of impeachment before January 1, 2027, as of late April 2026. However, those same markets show a 67% chance of impeachment before January 1, 2028.
The 25th Amendment route faces even steeper odds. Constitutional scholars note that the idea of the vice president and Cabinet taking the view that a set of policy decisions indicate presidential incapacity is difficult to envision, and that impeachment remains a more suitable avenue for lawmakers dissatisfied with the president’s performance. Vice President JD Vance would have to initiate any such process, and there is no indication he would.
The congressional math also matters. Republicans hold a 218-to-214 majority in the House, with three vacancies. According to the Cook Political Report, 18 Republicans sit in competitive races, with 14 in true toss-up territory, giving Democrats significantly more pickup opportunities than they had entering 2026.
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The Midterms Are the Real Wildcard
The most direct route to any change in the political dynamic runs through November 2026. Democrats need to gain just a handful of seats to flip the House in 2026. Trump himself has acknowledged the stakes. The threat of a possible third impeachment has been on Trump’s mind, and at a policy retreat in January he predicted that if Republicans don’t win the 2026 midterms, he will be impeached once again by a Democratic-led House.
In 2018, Trump’s independent approval was 36% before Democrats gained 41 House seats. Forecaster Nate Silver has called Trump the “second-most-unpopular president out of the past nine midterms.” His approval rating has dipped below 40% in the latest average, just months ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
Six months ahead of the November midterm elections, the Republican Party faces a deteriorating political climate, with Americans broadly dissatisfied with President Donald Trump’s leadership on the Iran war and other key issues and an electorate in which Democrats are significantly more motivated to vote, according to a Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll.
Among registered voters, Democrats are far more likely than Republicans to say they are more motivated than usual to vote in 2026, 60% vs. 36%, according to the May 22-26 YouGov/Economist poll.
Where This Leaves the Country
The Trump removal process is not a hypothetical. It is a live constitutional debate backed by formal legislation in Congress, a growing number of Democratic lawmakers, and polling numbers that have crossed into historically significant territory. Whether or not removal ever happens, understanding these mechanisms matters for every American citizen who votes, pays taxes, and has a stake in who holds executive power.
Both constitutional pathways exist for a reason, but neither was designed to be easy. Impeachment requires majorities that don’t currently exist. The 25th Amendment requires action from people, including the vice president, who show no sign of moving. Even some Democrats acknowledge that none of this is happening without substantial support from congressional Republicans and a Cabinet filled with Trump loyalists.
The 2026 midterms, now months away, represent the most concrete opportunity for the political math to change. If polling trends hold and independent voters continue shifting, the composition of the next Congress could look very different. For now, the public debate over the Trump removal process is forcing a broader reckoning with how the Constitution handles a president who has lost the confidence of a majority of Americans, even when the formal levers of removal remain firmly out of reach.
AI Disclaimer: This article was created with the assistance of AI tools and reviewed by a human editor.
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