The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists has once again moved their iconic “Doomsday Clock” to just 89 seconds before midnight. This marks the closest humanity has ever been to theoretical annihilation in the clock’s 78-year history. This adjustment comes due to an increase in global tensions, particularly Russia’s nuclear arsenal and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Daniel Holz, chair of the Bulletin’s Science and Security Board, emphasizes the gravity of the situation: “The war in Ukraine continues to loom as a large source of nuclear risk. That conflict could escalate to include nuclear weapons at any moment due to a rash decision”.
The situation has become increasingly tense since Russia has actively moved to lower its threshold for nuclear strikes, with the Kremlin describing this move as a direct signal to Western powers. Adding to these concerns, Russia has withdrawn from crucial arms control treaties recently, creating what experts describe as a “dangerously unstable” global environment. This tension isn’t limited to Eastern Europe – the Middle East continues to burn, with the Israel-Gaza conflict and broader regional hostilities involving Iran, creating additional nuclear risks.
To make matters worse, there are roughly 30 countries without nuclear weapons at the moment that are currently considering developing arsenals of their own. Experts warn this “undermines longstanding nonproliferation efforts and exponentially increases the probability of nuclear war”. Meanwhile, a nuclear-armed China has bolstered its military presence near Taiwan, and North Korea has continued to test its ballistic missile capabilities. With all this happening, it’s no wonder the Doomsday Clock is sitting under 90 seconds.
Climate Crisis and Environmental Concerns
The environmental situation has also reached a tipping point. 2024 was recorded as the hottest year in human history according to the U.N. World Meteorological Organization. “While there has been impressive growth in wind and solar energy, the world is still falling short of what is necessary to prevent the worst aspects of climate change,” warns Holz. A recent Lancet study has revelead that 57% of American youth aged 16-25 are either “very” or “extremely worried” about climate change. Safe to say they’d agree with less than a minute and a half on the Doomsday Clock with that shared opinion. Thats not even taking into account we’ve just come out of a global pandemic…
The World Meteorological Organization’s data also paints a rough picture, showing that sea-levels and greenhouse gas emissions continue to get worse, as well as extreme weather events now being recorded on every continent. These environmental challenges are only exacerbated by the fact that international cooperation seems to be diminishing. “The withdrawal of the US from the World Health Organization and the Paris Agreement are discouraging signs with which to begin the new year,” the Bulletin reported. The situation has created what experts describe as a “multitude of threats” that cast “a dark shadow of uncertainty and hopelessness over everyday life”.
Emerging Technologies and Information Warfare
The rise of artificial intelligence has introduced a new, unprecedented dimension of risk to global security, and certainly has a hand in the new Doomsday Clock time. Holz emphasizes this concern, stating that “AI-fueled disinformation and misinformation will only add to dysfunction”. These technological threats are particularly worrying due to their potential military applications, especially concerning nuclear weapons. The situation is further complicated by what experts describe as a “corruption of the information ecosystem”, which “damages public discourse and ultimately undermines democracy”.
The Bulletin, originally founded by some of the world’s best and brightest including Albert Einstein and J. Robert Oppenheimer, warns that AI is “beginning to show up on the battlefield in tentative but worrisome ways”. We are living in an age of information warfare, with AI making it “easier than ever for individuals to spread false information across the internet and nations are propagating disinformation and other forms of propaganda to subvert their adversaries’ elections”.
However, as Nobel Peace Prize Laureate Juan Manuel Santos observes, “This is a bleak picture but it is not yet irreversible“. The Bulletin emphasizes that the United States, China, and Russia must take primary responsibility for pulling the world back from the brink. As their Doomsday Clock report concludes, these powers “must come together with the shared intention of setting aside short-sighted competition and working together on our long-term survival. And they must come together now, because every second counts”.
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