Movies like Armageddon and Deep Impact have long portrayed the dramatic scenario of a doomsday asteroid hurtling toward Earth—but this concept may soon shift from fiction to reality. On Christmas Day 2024, asteroid threat 2024 YR4 passed by Earth at a distance of 828,800 kilometers. Currently, it is traveling away from us and will eventually change course, estimated to return to Earth around December 2032. NASA recently announced the chances of 2024 YR4 impacting Earth is a 2.3 percent (1 in 43) which was then increased to 3.1% (1 in 32). However, it’s likely that the probability of it hitting could drop to zero over time. The impact probability for this asteroid threat will continue to be monitored by astronomers who will continue to track it over the coming years.
Over the next several years, astronomers will closely monitor 2024 YR4’s orbit, gathering crucial data to refine impact predictions. Advanced telescopes, including NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), will help scientists determine its size, speed, and composition—key factors in assessing its potential threat. As technology improves, researchers will develop more accurate models to track the asteroid’s path and evaluate whether planetary defense measures might be necessary.
Let’s take a look at what this recent discovery could mean for the future of Earth.
Target Zones: Countries Most at Risk from the Asteroid’s Threat
Based on its current trajectory, astronomers predict that if asteroid 2024 YR4 were to strike Earth, it would likely impact a region stretching from northern South America across the Pacific Ocean to southern Asia, the Arabian Sea, and Africa. Countries at risk include Pakistan, Nigeria, Bangladesh, India, Ethiopia, Sudan, Venezuela, Colombia, and Ecuador. The space agency expects that further observations of the asteroid’s orbit will refine the accuracy of its impact probability.
How Scientists Are Tracking This Asteroid’s Path
Based at the University of Arizona’s Lunar and Planetary Lab in Tucson, Arizona, the Catalina Sky Survey (CSS) is a NASA-funded project that is supported by the Near Earth Object Observation Program (NEOO) under the Planetary Defense Coordination Office (PDCO). At CSS, their mission is to actively discover and monitor near-Earth objects (NEOs) to fulfill the congressional mandate of cataloging at least 90% of NEOs over 140 meters in size. Some of these objects fall into the category of potentially hazardous asteroids (PHAs), which could pose a threat to Earth.
Can We Stop It? NASA’s Plans for Deflection and Defense
Luckily, NASA has been testing and preparing for asteroid threats such as 2024 YR4. NASA launched the Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART), the first-ever asteroid deflection mission using a kinetic impact, in November 2021. The mission successfully concluded on September 26, 2022. Scientists could use this technique again in the future to deflect potential asteroid threats to Earth. It would, however, depend on the the size of the asteroid, its physical properties, its orbit, and how much warning time NASA has from the time of discovery.
How Will Experts Reveal Asteroid’s True Size and Behavior?
NASA’s most powerful telescope, the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) will be able to give astronomers a more accurate estimate of the asteroid’s size. NASA has scheduled JWST’s first observation of 2024 YR4 for March this year, when the asteroid will become visible through the telescope and reach its peak brightness. Researchers plan to conduct additional observations in May to analyze any fluctuations in the asteroid’s temperature. They will continue taking final measurements until it becomes visible again in three years.
What We Currently Know About the Asteroid’s Threat
If 2024 YR4 were to collide with Earth, the damage of the impact would greatly depend on the asteroid’s size. Astronomers currently estimate it to be between 40 and 100 meters wide, though its exact size remains unknown. In the unlikely scenario that 2024 YR4 impacts Earth in 2032, the asteroid would impact at a high velocity, said to be roughly 17 kilometers per second (around 38,000 miles per hour). Given its size range, an airburst is the most probable outcome.
Potential Impact Scenarios: Airbursts, Damage, and Tsunami Risks
If the asteroid were to enter the atmosphere over the ocean, models suggest that airbursts from objects of this size are unlikely to trigger significant tsunamis. If a smaller asteroid, around 130–200 feet (40–60 meters), entered the atmosphere over a populated area, its airburst could shatter windows and cause minor structural damage throughout a city. A larger asteroid, approximately 300 feet (90 meters), could cause more severe destruction, potentially collapsing residential buildings and shattering windows over a broader region.
A Historical Perspective: Past Impacts and Asteroid Threats
Asteroids have struck Earth multiple times throughout history, with the Chicxulub impact around 66 million years ago being the most significant, widely believed to have caused the dinosaurs’ extinction. Smaller asteroids collide with the planet regularly, but most burn up in the atmosphere before reaching the ground. Currently, scientists are comparing 2024 YR4’s estimated impact to the infamous Tunguska event, which leveled 830 square miles of Siberian forest in 1908.
What Comes Next in the Countdown to Possible Impact?
Over the next seven years, scientists will closely track asteroid 2024 YR4 to refine its trajectory and assess any potential risk to Earth. Initial observations provide a general idea of its path, but as it moves closer, astronomers will collect more precise data. In 2028, the asteroid will become visible again, allowing experts to reevaluate its size, speed, and likelihood of impact. If the probability of collision increases, space agencies may consider deflection strategies to alter its course. Until then, researchers will continue studying the asteroid’s behavior, ensuring the world remains prepared for any necessary action.
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