Numbers don’t fall in a vacuum. When a second-term president who never had the kind of honeymoon approval ratings his predecessors enjoyed starts losing another 10 to 13 points from his own starting line, political observers take notice. But what’s happening with Donald Trump’s approval ratings right now isn’t just a number on a chart. It’s a convergence of economic anxiety, a shooting war in the Middle East, and a creeping erosion in the personal traits that once served as a floor for his public support. The picture that’s emerging across virtually every polling organization tracking this White House is striking in how consistent it is.
What makes the current moment feel different from the normal ebb and flow of presidential approval is that it’s showing up everywhere at once. Online panels, telephone surveys, mixed-mode methodologies, Republican-leaning pollsters and center-left ones. They’re all saying roughly the same thing, at roughly the same time. That kind of convergence doesn’t happen unless something real is shifting underneath.
Understanding what’s driving that shift, and what it means for the president, his party, and November’s midterms, requires looking at where Trump started, where he is now, and which specific issues have done the most damage.
The Numbers: A Portrait of Sustained Decline
Three late-April surveys from Leger, Big Data Poll, and Pew Research Center were all collected between April 17 and April 28 among representative samples of American adults, pointing to a consistent shift rather than a polling outlier.
Pew conducted a national survey of 5,103 U.S. adults from April 20 to April 26, 2026, finding Trump’s approval rating at 34%, the lowest of his second term. Trend data shows approval falling from 47% in late January 2025 to the mid-30s by late April 2026, while disapproval climbed from the low 50s to 64% over that same period. Trump’s net rating deteriorated steadily, moving from -4 at the start of 2025 to -30 in the latest survey – a swing of 26 net percentage points in roughly 15 months.
The NBC News Decision Desk Poll powered by SurveyMonkey tells a nearly identical story. Overall, 37% of adults approved of Trump’s performance as president, while 63% disapproved – including 50% who said they disapprove strongly – putting his job rating at the lowest point of his second term in NBC News Decision Desk polling. Across the first two Decision Desk polls of Trump’s second term, his job rating was consistent at 45% approve, 55% disapprove. Those numbers have moved steadily in the wrong direction ever since.
The Silver Bulletin polling average, which tracks Trump’s approval daily with commentary from Nate Silver, shows his net approval rating hitting new second-term lows. Among U.S. adults specifically, the trend line has pointed consistently downward since the start of 2026, with roughly half of Americans now strongly disapproving of his job performance.
Where He Started and Where He Stands
Context matters when reading these numbers. When Donald Trump began his second term, approval at 47% was already the second-lowest start for any president in modern polling history – second only to his own first term. The fact that a president who entered his second term with already-subdued public support has since shed another 10 to 13 points is the defining characteristic of this period.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll found that Trump’s overall approval rating stands at 34% among all respondents and 37% among registered voters, both second-term lows for the president. The Reuters/Ipsos poll was conducted April 24-27, 2026, using the probability-based KnowledgePanel.
For comparison, Trump’s approval in his first term was, for the most part, relatively flat. He spent most of that presidency with approval in the low 40s – broadly normal for a modern president – including heading into the 2018 midterms and his 2020 reelection race. The current second-term trajectory is different. The numbers have trended slowly but steadily downward, and that trend predated the Iran war.
The Economy: The Dominant Driver
Ask Americans what is pulling down their view of the president, and economics comes back as the leading answer in survey after survey. The economy remains the single most pressing issue for Americans, with 29% identifying it as their top concern, ahead of threats to democracy at 24%, health care at 12%, and crime and safety at 10%.
A CNN poll conducted by SSRS found that Trump’s approval rating for handling the economy has fallen to a new career low of 31%, reflecting growing pessimism among Americans over the issue they consistently describe as the most important. Roughly two-thirds of Americans said Trump’s policies had worsened economic conditions, up 10 points since January. Just 27% approved of Trump’s handling of inflation, down from 44% one year ago.
The roughly 40% rise in gas prices due to the conflict with Iran has compounded Americans’ economic frustrations. Overall, 63% say higher costs at the pump have caused at least some financial hardship in their household, including 15% who say the hardship is severe.
For a related look at how economic anxiety is reshaping the political map ahead of November’s midterms, Trump’s 2026 foreign policy and its domestic consequences offers detailed context on how tariffs and inflation are playing out at the state level.
More Americans said their personal financial situation is worse today than it was a year ago (40%), and fewer said their economic situation is better (19%), than at any previous Decision Desk survey point during Trump’s second term.
A Quinnipiac University poll of 1,028 registered voters conducted between April 9 and April 13 put Trump’s overall approval at 38%, with 55% disapproving – matching an all-time second-term low for Trump in Quinnipiac polling first recorded in March 2026. Gas prices have become a particularly sharp point of friction, with a large majority of respondents blaming Trump at least somewhat for the recent rise in prices, and that figure climbing even higher among independent voters.
The Iran War: A Second Front of Disapproval
The conflict with Iran has become the second major drag on Trump’s numbers, and in some polls it is now approaching his economic ratings for depth of disapproval. Two-thirds of respondents in the NBC News Decision Desk survey disapproved of Trump’s handling of both inflation and the Iran conflict.
A Marist poll found Trump’s net approval rating had fallen to an all-time low – 22 points underwater – his lowest net approval rating in a Marist survey at any point in either of his terms. Sixty-one percent of Americans disapproved of how Trump is handling the economy, up from 58% in March, according to Marist, and his approval rating on Iran dropped to 27 points underwater, down from 18 points in March.
The YouGov and Economist tracking survey recorded a net approval of minus 19 percentage points in early April, with 37% approving and 56% disapproving. YouGov and Economist polling recorded Trump’s approval with independents at 22% in the most recent wave, down from 25% in late February and 31% in early March.
The two-week ceasefire in the Iran conflict did not meaningfully move the numbers, with around two-thirds of Americans continuing to disapprove of Trump’s handling of the conflict even after it was announced.
Americans’ frustrations are compounded by the fact that Trump had explicitly promised to tackle inflation and keep the United States out of foreign entanglements during his 2024 presidential campaign. The gap between those promises and governing reality appears to be a central factor in how voters are processing their dissatisfaction.
Eroding Personal Attributes
Perhaps the most telling dimension of the polling is the erosion happening not just in job performance ratings but in how Americans assess Trump’s personal characteristics – traits that have historically served as a floor for his support even when policy ratings slipped.
Pew found a significant decline in the share of Americans who believe Trump keeps his commitments. Currently, only 38% of respondents say the phrase “keeps his promises” describes the president well, a sharp decrease from 51% shortly after his 2024 reelection. Forty-four percent described him as “mentally sharp,” down from 48% in August, while 64% said he “stands up for what he believes in,” down from 68% the previous summer.
Public confidence in Trump on several key issues has also declined: 41% now say they are very or somewhat confident Trump can make good decisions on immigration policy, down from 53% shortly after his 2024 reelection, and 38% now express confidence in Trump to use military force wisely, down from 46% last summer.
A majority of Americans – 56% – say the overall level of ethics and honesty in the federal government has fallen over the course of Trump’s term, while only 19% say it has risen.
Although job approval has declined, Trump’s personal favorability remained broadly stable through the spring, suggesting frustration is increasingly tied to performance rather than personality. That distinction matters for understanding whether these numbers have room to recover. Trump is not being personally rejected by the public to the same degree that his policies are.
Partisan Erosion: Cracks in the Base
Trump’s base remains his most durable political asset, but even within it, the numbers are moving in the wrong direction. While most Trump voters still approve of the way he is handling his job as president, that share is shrinking: 78% of the president’s 2024 voters currently approve, down from 83% in January and 95% in the early days of his term.
Within Trump’s 2024 coalition, younger and Hispanic voters are now substantially less likely than his older and White voters to approve of his job performance: 57% of Trump voters under 35 and 70% of those aged 35 to 49 now approve, compared with 87% of his voters aged 50 and older.
In the NBC News Decision Desk survey, 83% of Republicans gave Trump a positive approval rating, down 4 points from earlier this year. The share of Republicans who strongly approve of his job performance dropped 6 points from 58% to 52%.
Among independents, the picture is bleaker still. YouGov and Economist polling recorded Trump’s approval with independents at 22% in the most recent wave, down from 25% in late February and 31% in early March, a sustained decline among non-aligned voters that has direct relevance to the November 2026 midterm elections, where competitive House and Senate districts will be largely decided by independent turnout.
For additional context on how Trump’s standing among key demographic groups compares to other figures in his administration, see the Melania Trump popularity comparison analysis, which draws on the same April 2026 polling data.
Midterm Implications
The political consequences of Trump’s declining approval are beginning to show up in congressional preference polling, which is the most direct indicator of what November’s midterm elections may look like for Republicans. Historically, the party in the White House loses seats in the midterms, so Trump’s poor approval rating could hamper the GOP’s chances of holding onto its control of the Senate and House of Representatives.
One-third of Americans believe the country is on the right track while two-thirds believe it is on the wrong track – the most pessimistic outlook in NBC News Decision Desk polling since Trump retook office. On the generic congressional ballot, respondents have been consistently favoring a Democratic candidate in their local congressional race by margins that analysts say historically indicate the possibility of a wave election, though structural factors including redistricting mean fewer competitive seats are in play than at comparable historical moments.
Trump’s approval rating could weaken Republicans running in tight races – the GOP is already holding onto razor-thin majorities in both chambers of Congress.
A White House spokesman said the administration views Trump’s 2024 election victory as the definitive measure of public support, arguing the president has already delivered historic progress on jobs, inflation, and affordability, and is only beginning to implement his agenda.
One remaining bright spot: border security remains the single issue where Trump performs positively. Fox News polling records 55% approval on that specific question, the only metric in positive territory – a reminder that the immigration mandate that underpinned his 2024 election victory remains intact even as broader economic sentiment has deteriorated sharply.
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What This Means Heading Into November
The data collected across April and May 2026 tells a coherent story. Trump entered his second term with a historically modest approval rating of 47%, and that number has since declined steadily – driven primarily by economic dissatisfaction and opposition to the Iran conflict – to record lows in the 34 to 37% range depending on the polling organization. The decline is not a methodological artifact. Surveys using online panels, telephone interviews, and mixed-mode methodologies are all pointing in the same direction.
Several findings deserve particular attention. The erosion is not limited to Democrats. A rising share of Americans – 61% – say the national economy is off on the wrong track, up from 43% in January 2025, according to Reuters/Ipsos. That cross-partisan concern about economic conditions is the foundation on which Trump’s declining numbers rest. The sharp drop in the perception that Trump keeps his promises suggests the erosion is structural rather than episodic. The Iran war appears to be solidifying some of Trump’s major liabilities, costing him support among voters who hadn’t previously abandoned him – and the compounding effect of rising gas prices has sent his economic handling ratings to new lows.
Most consequentially for the political calendar ahead, presidential approval typically changes gradually once an administration is established, making synchronized declines across multiple polling series notable. Together, the surveys point to softening confidence not just in job performance, but in core leadership attributes and issue competence. Whether that softening continues, stabilizes, or reverses before November will define the most closely watched midterm cycle in years. For Republican candidates defending competitive districts, that is a structural challenge that cannot be spun away – and the polling trend, as of mid-May 2026, shows no sign of turning around.
AI Disclaimer: This article was created with the assistance of AI tools and reviewed by a human editor.
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