NASA is currently preparing for a hypothetical scenario where an asteroid has a 72 percent chance of impact with Earth in the next 14 years. This exercise, while not based on any real threat, helps NASA and other agencies prepare for a potential future impact and develop strategies to avoid such a disaster.1
The Hypothetical Asteroid Impact
In this simulated scenario, scientists and experts planned for the possibility of an asteroid hitting Earth. Despite the lack of any known significant threat, these exercises are crucial for preparing for the unlikely but possible event of an asteroid impact. Lindley Johnson, NASA’s defense officer emeritus, stated the importance of these exercises, noting that a large asteroid impact is the only natural disaster humanity can predict and potentially prevent years in advance.
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Simulation Challenges
During the simulation at Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory, nearly 100 experts faced the challenge of an asteroid with a 72 percent chance of hitting Earth. Initial findings could not determine the asteroid’s exact size and direction accurately, making things difficult. The difficulty was further increased by the fact that the asteroid had passed behind the sun, delaying observations by seven months.
Role of FEMA and Interagency Coordination
Leviticus ‘LA’ Lewis from FEMA highlighted the agency’s role in coordinating responses before, during, and after disasters. In the event of a potential asteroid impact, FEMA would be a key player in ensuring public safety and preparedness. The exercise also included international collaborators, marking the first time such a wide array of participants joined in a planetary defense simulation.2
Utilizing DART Mission Data
This exercise was the first to use data from NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission, which showed the effectiveness of a kinetic impactor in changing an asteroid’s course. The DART mission’s success provides valuable insights for potential future efforts to deflect hazardous asteroids.
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Development of NEO Surveyor
NASA is also developing the Near-Earth Object (NEO) Surveyor, an infrared space telescope designed to expedite the discovery and characterization of potentially hazardous near-Earth objects (like an asteroid that could potentially impact Earth). The NEO Surveyor is expected to launch in June 2028, significantly enhancing humanity’s ability to detect and respond to asteroid threats well in advance.
Future Preparedness and Exercises
Following the simulation, NASA will publish a comprehensive report outlining the strengths and weaknesses identified during the exercise. These insights will help shape future plans and improve how prepared we will be. The Planetary Defense Coordination Office, established in 2016, continues to lead NASA’s efforts in managing planetary defense initiatives.
Can One Really Prepare for an Asteroid Impact?
While the threat of an asteroid impact is still just a theory, NASA’s proactive approach in preparing for such scenarios underscores the importance of being ready for any potential space hazards. Through simulations, technological advancements like the DART mission, and the upcoming NEO Surveyor, NASA aims to ensure that humanity is ready to handle and lower the risks of asteroid impacts.
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