Partisan Erosion: Cracks in the Base
Trump’s base remains his most durable political asset, but even within it, the numbers are moving in the wrong direction. While most Trump voters still approve of the way he is handling his job as president, that share is shrinking: 78% of the president’s 2024 voters currently approve, down from 83% in January and 95% in the early days of his term.
Within Trump’s 2024 coalition, younger and Hispanic voters are now substantially less likely than his older and White voters to approve of his job performance: 57% of Trump voters under 35 and 70% of those aged 35 to 49 now approve, compared with 87% of his voters aged 50 and older.
In the NBC News Decision Desk survey, 83% of Republicans gave Trump a positive approval rating, down 4 points from earlier this year. The share of Republicans who strongly approve of his job performance dropped 6 points from 58% to 52%.
Among independents, the picture is bleaker still. YouGov and Economist polling recorded Trump’s approval with independents at 22% in the most recent wave, down from 25% in late February and 31% in early March, a sustained decline among non-aligned voters that has direct relevance to the November 2026 midterm elections, where competitive House and Senate districts will be largely decided by independent turnout.
For additional context on how Trump’s standing among key demographic groups compares to other figures in his administration, see the Melania Trump popularity comparison analysis, which draws on the same April 2026 polling data.