The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts issued its May long-range forecast showing a 100% chance of a super El Niño forming by November – a figure that sat at just 55% in March. That shift, in only eight weeks, reflects just how fast conditions in the tropical Pacific have changed. The same models putting the probability at full certainty are projecting ocean temperatures that could rival the worst El Niño in 155 years of recorded history.
The last El Niño ended in early 2024. It was among the five most powerful ever measured, and its fingerprints are visible in the temperature record: the global average surface temperature that year hit 1.55°C above pre-industrial levels, confirmed across six international datasets. Scientists had barely closed the books on that event before the Pacific Ocean started loading up again.
The vast amount of heat stored in the tropical ocean pushes global temperatures higher by transferring energy from the ocean to the atmosphere, and right now, that process is accelerating. As of late May 2026, the Niño 3.4 index had warmed by about 1.3°C since early March, and there are clear signs of El Niño development. Forecasters are no longer asking whether a new El Niño will form. They’re debating how powerful it will get.
What the El Niño Forecast Actually Shows
According to NOAA, El Niño forms when monthly sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean warm beyond normal thresholds, weakening the trade winds that normally push warm water westward. When those winds falter, warm water sloshes back eastward, redistributing heat across the globe and scrambling rainfall patterns from Indonesia to the American Southwest.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center puts the chance of El Niño emerging by May-July 2026 at 82%, with a 96% probability it continues through Northern Hemisphere winter 2026-27. Wilfran Moufouma Okia, Chief of Climate Prediction at the World Meteorological Organization, stated that “climate models are now strongly aligned,” and that there is “high confidence in the onset of El Niño, followed by further intensification in the months that follow.”
The ECMWF’s long-range forecast models suggest the strongest El Niño ever is likely to form by November, with a 100% chance of reaching super El Niño status. The latest ECMWF outlook shows water temperatures in a key region of the central equatorial Pacific Ocean potentially reaching 3 degrees Celsius above average late in the year. The intensity threshold for a “super El Niño” is crossed when sea surface temperatures exceed 2°C above normal in key Pacific regions – a bar that has been met only a handful of times in the observational record.
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology reports that all models, including their own, forecast the tropical Pacific to continue warming in the coming months, with sea surface temperatures likely to reach El Niño thresholds during early winter. Some uncertainty remains about the likely strength of the event, though models indicate it will be at least moderate, with the possibility of a strong event, based on the extent of warming in the central tropical Pacific.
This trajectory is being driven by a massive oceanic Kelvin wave – a pulse of warm subsurface water traveling eastward across the Pacific – that has grown more energetic in recent weeks and is expected to surface, reorganizing global weather patterns starting in the tropics.
Why This One Is Different
Paul Roundy, a professor of atmospheric science at the University at Albany, told BBC Science Focus that he estimates “roughly a 50 per cent chance of the event becoming the strongest in the historical record right now” – up from a 20% estimate just weeks earlier.
Writing to weather.com, Roundy noted that “the present state is close to the conditions at the same time in 1997” – the lead-up to what remains one of the handful of super El Niños in the 20th century. He added that the westerly wind burst in early April was “likely to be the strongest in over 50 years, and probably in the last century.”
The comparison to 1997 matters because of what has changed since then. The 2026 El Niño is developing on a planet that has already warmed by 1.4°C since the pre-industrial period of 1850-1900. Global temperatures are already running over 1.4°C above pre-industrial levels, and a strong El Niño layered on top of that baseline takes the climate system somewhere it has not been in modern human history. A warmer base ocean temperature means the same El Niño forcing produces more extreme outcomes than it would have even a decade ago.
The WMO’s formal advisory states that “we need to prepare for a potentially strong El Niño event – which will exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall,” and that because a warmer ocean and atmosphere increases the availability of energy and moisture, El Niño’s associated impacts are amplified by climate change.
Where the Impacts Will Be Felt
Regional weather patterns shift simultaneously during El Niño events, often in opposite directions on different continents. The WMO’s advisory notes that El Niño is typically associated with increased rainfall in southern South America, the southern US, and the Horn of Africa, while driving drought conditions over Indonesia, Australia, and parts of southern Africa. During the 2023-24 event, Zimbabwe’s maize harvest fell by 60% and Zambia’s was cut in half. A stronger event could push those outcomes further.
Warmer ocean temperatures intensify coral bleaching and disrupt fisheries, while drought and heat increase wildfire risk, damage forests, and reduce river flows. Just three crops – rice, wheat, and maize – account for about 60% of the world’s calorie intake, meaning even modest production shortfalls can trigger sharp price increases. Regions already stretched by food insecurity are most exposed, particularly sub-Saharan Africa and parts of South and Southeast Asia.
For North America specifically, the El Niño forecast carries a more mixed picture. During boreal summer, El Niño’s warm water can fuel hurricane formation in the central and eastern Pacific, while hindering it in the Atlantic Basin. NOAA’s seasonal hurricane outlook reports a 55% probability of a below-average Atlantic hurricane season in 2026, tied directly to the strengthening El Niño. Drier conditions across parts of the West and persistent heat domes in the South remain significant risks regardless.
For people already managing conditions worsened by extreme heat, the forecast carries real clinical weight. A 2024 systematic review published in JAMA Cardiology identified strong links between climate-related environmental stressors – including extreme temperatures – and cardiovascular illness, particularly among older adults and those with underlying conditions. When temperatures are extreme, the body must work harder to circulate blood, increasing the risk of stroke, heart attack, and cardiovascular events, while also worsening chronic conditions like asthma, heart disease, and diabetes. For households managing those conditions, you can find more on how extreme heat affects the heart and what reduces risk.
The 1877 Benchmark – and What It Tells Us
Some forecasters say the 2026 event could rival the strongest on record: the catastrophic 1877 event that spurred the 1876-to-1878 global famine, which killed over 50 million people – about 3% of the world’s population at the time. Multiple major forecasting models are now projecting that 2026 could challenge or exceed that event, in a world far more connected economically and agriculturally.
Asian regions influenced by monsoon seasons suffered their most intense drought in 800 years during that period. A combination of the record El Niño, a record-strong Indian Ocean Dipole, and record North Atlantic warming all converged to cause simultaneous crop failures and famine across different regions. Today, a similar convergence would play out across global supply chains, food commodity markets, and energy grids rather than isolated agrarian economies.
Climate-related extreme weather events, intensified by El Niño, affect health across multiple dimensions: infectious and respiratory disease escalation, malnutrition, heat stress, and mental illness. During the powerful 1997-98 El Niño – a weaker event than what current models project for 2026 – approximately 23,000 deaths were attributed to extreme weather associated with that event, according to research cited in climate impact literature.
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What to Do Now
Approximately 1,220 people in the United States are killed by extreme heat every year under normal conditions, according to the CDC. A super El Niño event pushes temperatures well above normal baselines, meaning that figure is likely to climb during a high-intensity event. For households with elderly adults or anyone managing heart disease, diabetes, or respiratory conditions, the window to prepare is before peak heat – not during it.
The most concrete steps follow directly from what El Niño actually does. Heatwaves are the most directly dangerous outcome for people in temperate zones. Stock water, ensure air conditioning is functional before peak summer heat, and identify your nearest cooling center. Make a concrete check-in plan for hot days with any household members at elevated risk – before the heat arrives, not after.
On food and grocery planning, El Niño’s most reliable global effect is upward pressure on prices for staple grains. Drought in major wheat and rice-producing regions can translate to grocery price spikes within three to six months. Stocking a modest pantry reserve of non-perishable staples this summer is a practical hedge against that volatility.
The WMO notes that El Niño’s impacts on global temperatures are typically most pronounced in the second year after the event develops – meaning while 2026 will likely feature extreme heat stress and worsening droughts, the planet could feel even more of this El Niño’s thermal influence in 2027. Institutions will be stretched. Individual preparedness before peak intensity – not after – is the most direct way to reduce your household’s exposure to both the health and economic consequences of what forecasters are now calling the strongest El Niño in living memory.
AI Disclaimer: This article was created with the assistance of AI tools and reviewed by a human editor.
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