Trump entered the Iran war in late February 2026 demanding “unconditional surrender” from Tehran, according to CBS News. Four months later, he signed a memorandum of understanding that promises a $300 billion reconstruction fund for the country he’d been bombing – as NPR confirmed from the full text of the agreement. When Axios asked him what the war had taught him about the limits of his power, his answer was unambiguous: “There are no limits.”
That line, delivered during an interview with Axios journalist Marc Caputo for The Axios Show, stopped just short of completing its own logic. Trump acknowledged in the same breath that he knew limits existed, then denied them anyway. “I haven’t learned that lesson yet,” he added. “I know there are, but there are no limits.” The gap between those two sentences is where the story of the Iran deal actually lives.
What made Trump pull back from a maximalist war footing wasn’t military setback or diplomatic pressure alone. CNBC noted that Trump said he negotiated the deal to keep the war from turning into a global economic depression. That fear, more than any battlefield calculation, is what brought a president who campaigned on dominance to a table where he accepted considerably less than he promised.
How the Iran War Ended – and What Trump Declares About His Power
The memorandum was formally signed by President Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, as well as by the prime minister of Pakistan, which mediated between the two sides. Trump signed it during a dinner at the Palace of Versailles in France, in video published by French President Emmanuel Macron – a setting Trump himself called “my weakness,” given his fondness for imperial stagecraft.
The agreement promises “the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts,” including in Lebanon, where Israel had continued its offensive. The memorandum of understanding includes a 60-day negotiating period to reach a final deal, a reopening of the critical Strait of Hormuz, and a framework for nuclear negotiations. The US and regional partners will develop a reconstruction plan for Iran worth at least $300 billion.
Not long after Trump signed the memorandum, US Central Command announced it had ended its naval blockade of ships to and from Iranian ports, as promised in the agreement. Iranian state media reported the country’s national security council would suspend tolls paid by ships for 60 days, per the deal, though ships must still request Iran’s permission before passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump framed all of this as victory. He claimed “we defeated them totally militarily,” and even that the MOU “probably is unconditional surrender.” Speaking on Truth Social after the signing, he wrote: “Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!”
The Economic Pressure That Forced a Deal
The United States provided details of the 14-point memorandum of understanding it reached with Iran, with a US official reading out the text during a call with reporters. Both sides committed to the immediate and permanent end to military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and Iran could begin exporting oil as soon as the MOU was signed.
The Strait of Hormuz – the narrow waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to global shipping lanes – had been effectively closed since early March. A senior US official said Iran’s commitment to the destruction of its enriched uranium stockpile was “a major, major win for the United States of America,” adding that sanctions relief would be tied to the nuclear settlement. Trump argued that extending the war to satisfy hawks could have triggered a “worldwide depression.” In private, according to Axios, he had grown deeply worried that global petroleum reserves were starting to run dry.
The numbers backed that concern. Prior to the conflict, around 20 million barrels of oil transited the Strait of Hormuz daily. Measured against global production of around 100 million barrels per day, Brookings Institution analysts described it as the biggest supply disruption ever, with crude oil trade through the strait totaling around 15 million barrels per day before the war, according to the International Energy Agency. Brent crude prices surged more than 55% since the start of the war, jumping from around $72 a barrel on February 27 to nearly $120 at their peak, according to CNBC’s oil market coverage. US gasoline prices rose 7.5% to $3.20 per gallon during the conflict.
The market reaction to the deal was equally stark. Analysts at PVM Oil Associates said the conditional reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, along with the lifting of force majeure declarations by Kuwait and the end of the US naval blockade, had convinced investors that the disruption which had pushed prices above $120 “is well and truly over.” Oil prices were projected to trade between $75 and $82 a barrel in the near term, with Brent roughly down 36% from its peak during the conflict, according to market analyst Tiago Lacerda at Axi. Trump pointed to falling oil prices and a surging stock market as proof he made the right decision to back a deal.
Trump made the fear of becoming a depression-era president explicit. “I have one primary wish as president,” he told Axios. “I never want to be the late, great Herbert Hoover,” referring to the 31st president, forever associated with the Great Depression.
Republican Hawks Push Back on the Deal
The deal’s domestic reception was not uniform. Many Republicans who had stood by Trump through months of escalation found the terms of the MOU difficult to defend. Trump’s deal with Iran opened a rare breach with some Republican hawks, who warned that the agreement fell far short of the sweeping victory he promised and could leave Tehran richer, stronger, and still able to threaten the region.
Senator Bill Cassidy of Louisiana called the deal “the worst foreign policy blunder in decades,” writing on X that “Reagan is rolling over in his grave.” Cassidy also wrote: “Before the war, the strait was open, Iran was being crushed by sanctions, and 13 service members were still alive.” Cassidy argued that “Iran’s nuclear ambitions were not curbed, and they have learned that threatening the Strait of Hormuz works and will undoubtedly leverage it in the future.”
Senator Ted Cruz argued that “history demonstrates that giving billions of dollars to theocratic lunatics who want to murder us is an exceptionally bad idea,” describing the $300 billion reconstruction arrangement as a “Marshall Plan” for a leading state sponsor of terror. Senator Roger Wicker of Mississippi, chair of the Senate Armed Services Committee, said he was “concerned that the memorandum of understanding negotiates away the victories of Operation Epic Fury in ways that are completely out of step with the President’s goals.”
Trump dismissed his critics as “fools,” insisting the deal gave Washington the chance to end the war without deeper US involvement. Cassidy’s accounting of the war’s cost was stark: “Before the war, the strait was open, Iran was being crushed by sanctions, and 13 service members were still alive. Now, 13 Americans are dead, families have paid billions at the pump, sanctions will be lifted, and the bombing has stopped.” Senator Brian Schatz of Hawaii estimated the war would cost between $100 billion and $200 billion in total, according to reporting by MS Now.
The tensions over executive authority ran deeper than the deal itself. Earlier in the war, the House had passed a War Powers Resolution directing Trump to withdraw US forces from hostilities with Iran – the first such measure to clear either chamber since the conflict began. That effort, covered in detail by The Hearty Soul’s reporting on the House war powers vote, reflected a broader unease within the Republican caucus about a president conducting an extended military campaign without formal congressional authorization.
What Comes Next: A 60-Day Window
The memorandum is an opening framework, not a final agreement. The document doesn’t resolve the underlying reason for why the United States and Israel went to war with Iran. It creates a 60-day window – extendable by mutual agreement – for the two sides to resolve decades of enmity.
Trump has boasted he will achieve a much “better” agreement than the 2015 JCPOA. So far, Iran’s commitment in the memorandum that it “shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons” is the same promise it has made for years, including in that earlier nuclear accord. Several key issues remain unresolved, including the precise limits on uranium enrichment, the fate of Iran’s existing nuclear stockpile, and Iran’s support for proxy groups across the region – none of which is addressed in the 14 points.
Trump’s framework was negotiated bilaterally by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner – a property developer and the president’s son-in-law. The 2015 JCPOA, by comparison, was negotiated over years by the US, UK, France, Germany, Russia, and China, with input from nuclear physicists and non-proliferation experts, and ran to 159 pages.
Trump himself acknowledged the deal’s fragility at the G7 summit in France. “It’s a memorandum of understanding,” he said. “If I don’t like it, if they don’t behave, we’ll go right back to dropping bombs right smack in the middle of their head.”
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What This Means for You
For all of Trump’s claims of limitless power, he acknowledged one force that still constrains him – the economy. Trump said he negotiated the agreement to prevent the conflict from triggering a global economic depression. The markets moved in the direction he predicted. Oil prices dropped sharply on the deal’s announcement. Gas prices, which had climbed steeply during the four months of fighting, are expected to ease further as Iranian oil returns to global supply and the Strait of Hormuz reopens to commercial shipping.
For American households, the most immediate consequence is at the pump. Increased ship traffic through the strait will come as a relief to Trump, whose approval ratings had been sliding as Americans faced soaring gasoline prices and spiking inflation. Whether the 60-day negotiating window produces a durable final agreement – one that genuinely addresses Iran’s nuclear program – will determine whether this memorandum is remembered as a pragmatic off-ramp or an expensive detour back to the starting line.
Throughout the Axios interview, Trump repeatedly measured power by submission – noting that G7 leaders believed him when he joked “I’m the boss,” that Israel has “a lot of respect” for him and will “do as I say.” The 60-day clock is now running. Whether the Iran deal confirms that view of power, or quietly complicates it, may only become clear once those negotiations conclude. What is already clear is that the president who declared “there are no limits” to his power drew the line at a global recession – and signed a deal to prove it.
AI Disclaimer: This article was created with the assistance of AI tools and reviewed by a human editor.
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