In December of 2024, astronomers made a discovery that put us all at threat. they had discovered a new near-Earth object which was since named Asteroid 2024 YR4. The object was estimated to measure between 130 and 300 feet in diameter. There was great concern that suggested it may hit Earth on December 22, 2032.
Initially, it was calculated that there was a 3.1% chance of collision with Earth. While this sounds significantly low, it was more than enough to spark attention due to the estimated impact it could cause. For context, it was estimated that the energy this would release would equate to 7.8 megatonnes of TNT. That’s enough to decimate a major city.
Reassessing the Asteroid Threat
Astronomers are continuously monitoring the Asteroid. Attempting to better assess precise calculations of it’s actual trajectory. Both NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA) has since significantly downgraded the asteroid as a threat.
NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) reduced the likelihood to 0.00005% (1 in 20,000). This effectively eliminates the 2024 YR4 as a significant threat to Earth. Richard Binzel, a professor of planetary science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and creator of the Torino scale, confirmed, “That’s impact probability zero folks!”
Potential Lunar Impact
Instead of posing a threat to Earth, the asteroid‘s revised path could pose a different problem. Current readings place it at a 1.7% change of colliding with the moon on December 22, 2032. Despite being a higher probability, it remains relatively low for now. Nonetheless, scientists are using this constant observation as a case study, offering insight into the composition of the asteroid along with the moon’s geological response if such an event was to occur.
Read More: NASA Engineer Identifies Countries at Risk of Asteroid Strike in Seven Years
The Importance of Continuous Monitoring
This particular eye-opener has highlighted the importance of data collection and consistent monitoring in order to accurately assess the asteroid’s threat. As more data becomes available, the potential fear has significantly lowered while scientists refine their risk assessment techniques. This further encourages the investment in asteroid detection and tracking systems. This would allow timely and more precise evaluations of the potential hazards foreign objects pose to us.
Advances in Planetary Defense
Agencies such as NASA have been developing better strategies to mitigate potential impact in response to the 2024 YR4. One of their possible strategies are to make use of the Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) which may be able to redirect its trajectory by colliding a spacecraft with it. This new knowledge gained over the last few months has enhanced our preparedness for future encounters with asteroids.
Public Perception and Media Coverage
Significant public and media attention has been drawn to the changing risk assessments of asteroid 2024 YR4. Initially, sensational headlines covered social media. However, since updated data emerged, the narrative changed, shifting towards the comfort knowing the chances were lessened.
This discovery and the progressive research proves that sensationalism can cause blatant panic, especially when scientific findings are communicated to the public. Clear information is necessary in order to prevent miscommunications which may trigger alarms between communities before understanding the nature of the potential threat.
Read More: Scientists Warn of ‘City-Destroying’ Asteroid on Collision Course with Earth