From time to time, people ponder the end of the world. It may come after watching a movie or reading a book about the apocalypse. Or they may be suffering from existentialism after losing a loved one. Or they may study the end-times based on religious beliefs or scientific theories. Will there be a robot uprising, the earth imploding from pollution, nuclear war, a zombie virus, or an asteroid crash? One theorist claims that humanity is currently at a crossroads, with one path leading to superabundance, and the other to societal collapse. And it is on the decline.
Humanity on an “inevitable decline”

Dr. Nafeez Ahmed, author, journalist, and Distinguished Fellow at the Schumacher Institute for Sustainable Systems, published a paper in the journal Foresight with the intention to “construct accurate and plausible future scenarios to underpin national and international decision-making”. To do this, he analyzed historical and empirical data about topics such as energy, food, transportation, materials, and more. He came to an unfavorable conclusion.
“Industrial civilisation is facing ‘inevitable’ decline as it is replaced by what could turn out to be a far more advanced ‘postmaterialist’ civilisation based on distributed superabundant clean energy,” said Ahmed, in a statement. “The main challenge is that industrial civilisation is facing such rapid decline that this could derail the emergence of a new and superior ‘life-cycle’ for the human species.”
Four stages of civilization

His research states that civilization constantly evolves through four stages: growth, stability, decline, and transformation. And although he believes humanity could be on the brink of growth, it is instead going through a decline. He blames this on the increase in authoritarian politics and protection of the fossil fuel industry, which produces emissions that promote climate change.
Ahmed believes the solution involves investing in clean energy, environmentally-friendly materials, artificial intelligence, lab-grown agriculture, and 3D printing. These concepts together can create a superabundance of available resources. However, this potential advancement could be thwarted by antiquated, centralized industrial hierarchies who want to maintain the use of unsustainable resources.
New vs old systems

Therefore, Ahmed attributes political disruption, wars, and global crises to an increasingly wide gap between the old “industrial operating system” and the proposed new system. Fortuantely, as his theory states, if civilization is in the midst of a decline, the next stage is transformation.
“An amazing new possibility space is emerging, where humanity could provide itself superabundant energy, transport, food, and knowledge without hurting the earth,” said Ahmed. “This could be the next giant leap in human evolution. But if we fail to genuinely evolve as humans by rewiring how we govern these emerging capabilities responsibly and for the benefit of all, they could be our undoing. Instead of evolving, we would regress — if not collapse. The rise in authoritarian and far-right governments around the world, increases this grave risk of collapse…”
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“It won’t bring on the apocalypse…”

Professor Daniel Brooks from the University of Toronto commented on Dr. Nafeez Ahmed’s study in an email to The Independent, offering a nuanced perspective on the implications of the research. He acknowledged that while the world is currently in a precarious position, humanity still possesses the capacity to create a brighter and more sustainable future. According to Brooks, the challenges we face are significant, but they are not insurmountable. He emphasized that while achieving a utopia may be unrealistic, the collapse of major technological systems would not necessarily lead to the complete downfall of civilization. Instead, he suggested that the trajectory of global progress depends on how effectively societies respond to emerging crises.
Brooks pointed out that the fundamental issue lies in the disparity between the accelerating rate of climate change and the pace of technological advancements designed to combat its effects. “We agree with those who say that we have sufficient technology to solve the problems now, and although technological advances are helpful, the accelerating pace of global climate change is outstripping the rate of technological advance,” he explained in the email. He underscored the urgency of addressing these environmental challenges before they reach irreversible tipping points.
Historic moment for humanity

However, Brooks also made it clear that technology alone cannot solve the crisis. He argued that behavioral changes on both an individual and governmental level are critical to maintaining a technologically advanced and habitable planet. “The solution to maintaining technological humanity lies in changing our behavior,” he stated. One significant change, he suggested, would be ensuring that political leadership aligns with scientific research rather than rejecting it. “Not electing anti-science authoritarians would be a good behavioral change at the level of elections,” he added, noting that this perspective was shared by his co-author, Salvatore Agosta, an associate professor at Virginia Commonwealth University.
Gaya Herrington, vice president at Schneider Electric and a researcher focused on sustainability, also expressed agreement with Ahmed’s findings. She emphasized that the current moment in history is one of immense consequence and urgency. “We live in a historic now-or-never moment, and what we do in the next five years will determine our wellbeing levels for the rest of this century,” Herrington stated. She stressed the importance of proactive decision-making, particularly in adopting sustainable energy solutions, reducing carbon emissions, and restructuring economic models to align with environmental conservation efforts.
While Ahmed’s research presents a sobering look at humanity’s future, experts like Brooks, Agosta, and Herrington believe there is still a pathway forward—if the right decisions are made in time.
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